China’s BRI plans signal a renewed opportunity for the Silk Road

The Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, held last week in Beijing, functioned as a platform for China to communicate its BRI and Silk Road aspirations. Multiple mentions of railway development and the central role that China assigned to Kazakhstan and the Middle Corridor in this regard highlight a new Eurasian status that the superpower aims to establish, in which Russia could likely have a smaller part to play. Bilateral meetings during the forum and signed agreements point towards this direction.

“Over these ten years, we have endeavoured to build a global network of connectivity consisting of economic corridors, international transportation routes and information highways as well as railways, roads, airports, ports, pipelines and power grids,” mentioned Xi Jinping, the President of the People’s Republic of China, in the forum’s opening speech.

He continued praising the successes of the BRI by saying that “trains speeding along rail tracks, automobiles running on roads, flights connecting different countries, cargo ships breaking waves, and e-commerce bringing so much convenience to people—they have all become symbols of international trade in the new era.”

Moreover, Xi used the opportunity to assert China’s importance for world trade and economy, underlying that “China can only do well when the world is doing well. When China does well, the world will get even better.” His remark resembled the words of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who, during his visit to Beijing a year ago, said that “the world needs China,” despite his administration’s attempts to reduce dependency on China. Xi did not miss the chance to comment on that, saying that China stands against decoupling and supply chain disruptions.

His speech, accompanied by the announcement of important developments analysed later in the article, could be understood as a clear statement that China, Eurasian transport and the Silk Road are here to stay, but with a renewed focus. Here is why.

Speeding China-Europe Express development

First, it is essential to look at the plans Xi disclosed while opening last week’s forum in Beijing. The key phrase in this case is China’s “participation in the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor.” Xi highlighted that China aims to “build a multidimensional Belt and Road connectivity network, speed up the high-quality development of the China-Europe Railway Express and build a new logistics corridor across the Eurasian continent that will also integrate the maritime Silk Road.” All these are supposed to happen with the Middle Corridor in focus, while there was no explicit mention of the Russian route.

The President of the People’s Republic of China also disclosed big funding plans. According to his words, China will reserve approximately 100 billion euros for investments in the coming years. “The China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China will each set up a roughly 45 billion euros financing window, while additionally roughly 10 billion euros will be injected into the Silk Road Fund,” he said.

On top of that, he claimed that his country will “remove all foreign investment restrictions in the Chinese manufacturing sector, enter into free trade agreements and investment protection treaties with more countries, and establish pilot zones for Silk Road e-commerce cooperation.”

All these developments will occur while China ensures green infrastructure and transportation investments. The investment sums Xi mentioned and the pledges he made all sound appealing, but they will be tested in practice. If there is one key takeaway from the words he shared with the delegates in Beijing, it is that China will attempt to grow the China-Europe Railway Express by making the Middle Corridor its key element.

Cooperation with Kazakhstan

Increased cooperation between China and Kazakhstan and shared statements that Kazakhstan will function as China’s Middle Corridor hub all the way to Europe come to confirm that the Trans-Caspian Transport Route gains a new position on China’s agenda. Of course, the two states are strategic partners, with their bilateral trade growing annually.

However, Xi’s statement that the two partners aim to “expand the scale of railroad freight transport between the two countries, boost the use of the Trans-Caspian Sea international transport routes, and enhance the capacity, scale and efficiency of the China-Europe railway express,” indicates that their objectives go beyond their bilateral cooperation.

Agreements signed during the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation showcase their intentions. For example, as KTZ communicated, some of the most important documents that were signed during the two-day forum concern the purchase of locomotives from the Chinese firm CRRC and the cooperation between KTZ and the Chinese Lianyungang Port Group LLC.

The latter aims to develop a container hub at the Kazakh Caspian Sea port of Aktau, a critical Middle Corridor hub, and the development of multimodal transport along the route to expand the use of Eurasian freight trains. Last week, the two countries also commenced the construction of the Khorgos industrial park—a 692 million U.S. dollars project that could transform trade and connectivity in the region.

Where is Russia?

One of the most striking facts from the forum is that despite Russia’s participation in it and the presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin, there was no mention of shared agreements or upcoming projects with China. The Chinese narrative focused mainly on Kazakhstan and the development of the Middle Corridor, leaving a pending question on the future of cooperation with Russia. Expert opinions vary on this issue: some say that the disclosed plans indicate China’s intention to extend an arm of goodwill to Europe after some years of tension and that the BRI might reorient its focus to Central Asia.

Others say that China looks at the situation from a purely pragmatic viewpoint and aims to reduce supply chain disruptions also stemming from the sanctioned Russian route. For instance, Marcin Kaczmarski, Lecturer in Security Studies at the University of Glasgow and Natasha Kuhrt, Senior Lecturer in International Peace and Security at King’s College London, wrote that “It is clear that Beijing does not want to be seen to be openly supporting Russia in resisting and bypassing western sanctions.”

Decoding the message

A possible conclusion is that China’s pledge to develop the Middle Corridor as a Silk Road route in the BRI context by enhancing cooperation with Kazakhstan is a strong message that can be interpreted in various ways. It does not necessarily mean a shift of strategic focus; after all, no one expects that Sino-Russian cooperation will experience a massive scaling down.

What it could mean, though, is that no matter the motivation, China seems to understand the criticality of maintaining trade and transport channels with Europe open. The last couple of years, with the sanctions on Russia, have posed immense obstacles not only to European and Russian companies but also to Chinese, which saw their supply chains with traditional European partners disrupted significantly and the idea of a rail-led development fading away gradually.