Cargo transit via the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) has already exceeded 10 million tons this year. The Iranian Deputy Minister of Transport and Urban Development, Shahriyar Afandizadeh, shared the information. With this figure in place, INSTC nearly reached its ultimate yearly goal of 12 million tons of transported cargo. However, it is unclear whether this amount corresponds only to rail volumes.

Slightly more than a year ago, an agreement between Russian RZD and the Islamic Republic of Iran Railways (RAI) envisioned that the volume target for 2023 would be 12 million tons. The previously set target was 10 million tons per year.

Interestingly, in 2022, the transit volumes along the INSTC exceeded the 10 million tons goal and reached approximately 14,2 million tons. Nevertheless, those volumes did not only correspond to rail. Specifically, railways carried around 9 million tons out of the 14,2, and road transport shared the remaining 5,2 million tons.

This is why it is still important to underline that even if volumes are growing in the right direction this year, it should not be taken for granted that all of them correspond to rail transport. Indicatively, for the first five months of 2023, rail along the INSTC carried four million tons of cargo. According to Oleg Belozerov, the head of RZD, volumes grew by 42 per cent compared to the same period in 2022.

Yet, with essential rail infrastructure still not in place, the INSTC deploys trucks on considerably long distances, even in the corridor’s central routes. Despite this year’s rail volumes seemingly surpassing those from 2022, it is unlikely that they alone will be sufficient to meet the overall volume targets.

Big plans on paper

The INSTC has been subject to multiple volume target changes. Every year, RZD and RAI come up with new goals that might sound impressive but do not reflect the corridor’s growth. For example, if we put the theoretically realistic targets of 10 or 12 million tons of cargo per year aside, the rest of the plans shared by RZD sound slightly far-fetched.

In late 2022, the Russian company announced that its immediate plans included doubling the capacity of the INSTC. Specifically, with no set timeframe, the target was approximately 35 million tons of cargo per year. A few months later, in June 2023, RZD came up with a new ambition: reaching 100 million tons annually.

Volumes have indeed been increasing in the INSTC, but reaching such figures does not only entail more shipments. Most importantly, it involves more infrastructure. Considering that the corridor’s total capacity currently, including all its branches, is roughly 15 million tons per year, the INSTC is still searching for major developments that will unlock its transit potential.